Over the last two years, spending on artificial intelligence (AI) has become one of the main engines of U.S. economic growth. Estimates suggest that AI-related capital expenditures contributed more than a full percentage point to U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025, overtaking U.S. consumers, and that AI-related stocks have accounted for roughly three quarters of S&P 500 returns and most of the growth in corporate capital spending since late 2022.
Private investment tells a similar story. In 2024, U.S. private AI investment exceeded $100 billion, far outpacing other countries and widening the U.S. lead in AI funding. According to Stanford HAI, global semiconductor companies that supply AI chips and memory have seen their market value climb into the tens of trillions of dollars, and industry outlooks project double-digit growth in AI-related chips in 2025 and beyond.
At the same time, many indicators for the broader economy tell a less comfortable story. Analysts at major banks and research centers have warned that, without the AI spending surge, U.S. growth might look like a mild recession, with higher unemployment and weak productivity growth. In other words, AI is propping up growth in an economy that is otherwise struggling to gain momentum.
This creates a visible split. A small number of very large firms, particularly in technology and semiconductors, are seeing strong earnings and stock price gains. Many smaller firms in more traditional sectors are navigating slow sales, higher borrowing costs, and customers who are more cautious with spending.
How this feels on Main Street
Small business surveys capture this uneasy mix of resilience and strain. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has hovered around its long-term average near 98 to 99 in recent months, which suggests that conditions are not collapsing. However, the same surveys show that owners’ expectations for future business conditions have deteriorated sharply compared with earlier in the year, and many still cite inflation, weak sales, and labor costs as top problems.
Credit has been a particular concern. While some measures of expected credit conditions have improved slightly from their worst levels, a net share of small businesses still report that it is harder to get financing than it was a year ago. Many are paying higher interest rates on existing debt and are cautious about taking on new obligations.
This is the backdrop against which the AI boom is unfolding. For a small manufacturer, logistics firm, medical practice, or neighborhood retailer, the AI economy can feel both distant and uncomfortably close.
- It is distant because most smaller firms are not building data centers or training large AI models. Their day-to-day concerns are payroll, rent, inventory, and customer demand.
- It is close because AI spending affects the cost and availability of technology they depend on. The Verge explains that a surge in demand from AI data centers has contributed to shortages and price spikes in memory chips, which can raise the cost of PCs, servers, and other equipment that small businesses use.
Small businesses are also feeling competitive pressure. Large firms with deep pockets are rapidly adopting AI tools to cut costs and automate back-office work. Smaller firms worry that they will fall behind if they cannot access similar tools at a reasonable price or if they lack the time and skills to implement them effectively.
Where AI is already touching small businesses
Even without building their own AI infrastructure, many small businesses are encountering AI in at least three ways:
- Everyday tools are getting “smarter”
Accounting software, customer relationship management systems, email marketing platforms, and office software increasingly bundle AI features. These tools can save time and offer more insight, but they are adding AI features behind higher-tier plans. - Vendors and lenders are using AI behind the scenes
Suppliers, logistics partners, and financial institutions are using AI to manage risk, optimize delivery routes, design pricing, and screen loan applications. These strategies can improve efficiency, yet it can also create new opacity. A small business owner may see changes in terms, delivery times, or underwriting decisions without fully understanding the algorithms that sit underneath. - New AI native competitors are forming
Some new firms are built from the ground up around AI, with very lean teams and highly automated processes. They can move quickly and operate with lower overhead in fields such as consulting, design, software development, and marketing. Traditional small businesses in those sectors may have to differentiate more clearly on relationship quality or specialized expertise.
The opportunity for Main Street is real. Used wisely, AI tools can help small firms understand customers more clearly while also cutting down on manual work that slows operations. The challenge is that these benefits require up-front time and, often, up-front money at a moment when many owners feel they are still recovering from prior shocks.
Practical risks in an “AI-led” slowdown
The tension between an AI-led boom and a soft or slowing broader economy creates several specific risks for small businesses:
- Cost squeeze without matching revenue growth. Technology, insurance, wages, and financing costs may rise faster than sales, especially if customers pull back in response to economic uncertainty or higher prices from tariffs and supply constraints.
- Capital misalignment. Large companies can fund multiyear AI projects using retained earnings and bond markets. Small businesses generally need bank loans or alternative financing. If they invest heavily in new systems at the wrong time or with the wrong structure, they may end up more leveraged without seeing enough productivity gain to offset the risk.
- Uneven access to information and talent. Larger firms can hire AI specialists and data scientists. Smaller firms may rely on vendors or off-the-shelf solutions that do not perfectly match their needs, which makes it harder to capture the full value of the technology.
- Exposure to volatility if the AI boom reverses. If AI-related spending slows sharply in the future, it could remove a major support for overall economic growth. That would show up in tighter credit, weaker demand in sectors that supply AI hardware and construction, and potential ripple effects through financial markets.
How mission-driven lenders like AmPac fit into this landscape
For small businesses in California, Arizona, and Nevada, the core questions remain practical. Can we invest in the technology, equipment, and space we need without overextending ourselves if the broader economy slows? Can we preserve cash flow while still modernizing?
This is the gap that community-focused SBA lenders and Community Development Financial Institutions are designed to help address.
AmPac Business Capital is an SBA 504 and SBA 7a Community Advantage lender and certified development financial institution that focuses on long-term financing for small businesses that create jobs and strengthen local communities. In an environment where AI is driving much of the national investment story but credit still feels tight on Main Street, AmPac can help by:
- Providing fixed asset financing through SBA 504 loans so borrowers can purchase or improve owner-occupied real estate or large equipment with longer terms and relatively modest down payments, which can free up cash for technology and working capital.
- Offering smaller working capital and equipment loans through SBA 7a Community Advantage and microloan programs to support incremental upgrades, such as new software, upgraded computers, or process improvements.
- Working alongside partners such as local chambers, technical assistance providers, and city or county programs to connect owners to education and advisory resources, including guidance on adopting new technologies in a way that supports long-term viability rather than short-term hype.
This is not a complete shield against the risks of an AI-driven cycle, but it does give small businesses more options. Instead of being pulled along by technology trends that feel out of reach, owners can focus on carefully chosen investments that improve productivity, strengthen their balance sheets, and position them to serve customers well, whether or not the AI boom continues at its current pace.